
Gartner released its worldwide mobile sales numbers
for both hardware and smartphone OS, and they're not much of a
surprise: Nokia's first in hardware sales. It's OS, Symbian, has 46.9%
of the marketshare. RIM, makers of BlackBerry, trail way behind with
19.9%; iPhone OS manages 14.4%; and even the
much-buzzed-about Android only snags 3.9%.
So why should Nokia be scared as hell? Because Symbian's (currently
in its S60 version and ubiquitous in Europe) death grip may be
loosening.
New mobile OSes, such as Google's Android, Palm's WebOS, and Apple's
iPhone OS, are snapping up first-time smartphone buyers with
easy-to-understand, finger-friendly interfaces. Apple, it's worth
noting, nearly doubled its OS marketshare in 2009 (from 8.2% in '08 to
14.4% in '09), bumping Microsoft out of the No. 3 spot. More
importantly, though it and other Nokia competitors showed the kind of
true innovation that leads to all-important mindshare.
Mindshare doesn't necessarily translate directly into sales numbers,
but it's a good indicator--and Gartner's sales numbers show movement in
that direction.
RIM's BlackBerry OS is as dated as Symbian, yet it's shown
remarkable staying power with business types--and it's even making a
nice little push into the mid- to low-end consumer market with
well-made, inexpensive phones like the Storm and Curve. That leaves the
two non-RIM pioneers of the pre-iPhone smartphone, Microsoft and Nokia,
with legacy products that can't help but look dated. And that's not
opinion: the Gartner numbers back it up.
Microsoft's Windows Mobile and Nokia's Symbian are the only two
mobile OSes to lose marketshare in the past year, with its users
flocking to iPhone, BlackBerry, Android, and (at least one or two,
right?) WebOS. And in the coming year, that pattern is going to
continue: Android is picking up steam and spreading across the globe,
Apple will release a new iPhone, BlackBerry will continue to be adored
by the briefcase set, and WebOS will continue to be liked by all 50
people who own Palm phones. Microsoft understands the problems this
pattern indicates, which is why it opted for a complete, radical,
drastic reboot of Windows Mobile in favor of the awkwardly named but
fabulous-looking Windows Phone 7 Series.
And what does Nokia have? Its last flagship phone, the N97, was universally panned (Gizmodo said it well in its review: If this is the best Nokia can do, they're doomed), and Nokia's executive VP even admitted
the phone was a "tremendous disappointment." Symbian S60 is a whopping
eight years old, and showing it--several lifetimes old in the mobile
world. Nokia does have a new OS, called Maemo, bundled into the new
N900 Internet tablet/phone, but reviews have called it "half-baked" and "an experiment." Its Meego venture with Intel
is absurdly ambitious, but Nokia has given precious little information
on what the Linux-based OS will actually look like--not the most
encouraging sign for software that's supposed to take the world by
storm this year.
Nokia needs to do something to shake up their business now, while
they're still on top, because the tide is moving in the wrong
direction. Pretty soon, iPhone, Android, and maybe even Microsoft won't
be upstarts--they'll be challengers.
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